The ratings are based primarily on completion chances in the RIGHT columns since passing RIGHT is the most important thing a QB must do. The MUST RUN chances are also factored in and interceptions subtract from the ranking. Since the Short Pass is the most important (you need this to convert 3rd and long), it has the heaviest weight in the rankings.
Mat Ryan has the best QB ranking. He is followed (after a gap) by Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Sam Bradford. The worst rated starting QB is Ryan Fitzpatrick.
By my rating system Ryan is the best ever QB card. He combines great completion #’s with low INT’s and a decent Must Run. The only thing he doesn’t do is End Run.
Ryan is the best at the Short pass, with 21 right completions. He is also best in the set at Long pass completions with 10. He tied for 4th best at Flat Pass, with 21.8 right completions completing on the INT number when the pass is not intercepted. This is a great card, with no weaknesses. The INT numbers are low as well (only 2-3 on Flat and Short and 2-3 Long). Even the Must Run is nice. The card has 4 Must Run chances and he gets 8 yards or more all the down to 6. Add to this a nice receiving corps that includes Julio Jones (best in the set) as well as 3 RB/TE’s that can catch long and you have an extremely potent passing attack.
Rodgers is a below Ryan by a far amount. His Short Pass right completions are two below Ryan, but he is almost 6 completions lower flat and 3 completions lower Long. Also his INT’s are a bit higher than Ryan’s. He does have one of the best Must Runs in the set (8 or more yards down through a 7) and he has 6 chances of Must Run. An added bonus is one of the best End Run cards in the set. A very good card with some limitations Short and Long. And he does have the best receiving corps in the set.
Next is Tom Brady. Short Pass right completions are one below Rodgers, but his Flat is four completions better than Rodgers and his Long is on completion better. His INT’s are lower than Rodgers (and Ryan and everyone except Dak Prescott), which helps his rating.
The best Long Passers are Ryan with 10 completions right, then Brees, Carson Palmer, and Phillip Rivers with 9. This is up from last year when the best Long Passers had 7 completions right.
The best Short Passers are Ryan with 21 completions right, then, Rodgers with 19, then Brady with 18. Again , this is better than last year’s set of passing cards.
The best Flat Passers are Brees, Bradford, and Ryan Tannehill with 24 completions right. After that is Joe Flacco with 22.7 and then Ryan, Kirk Cousins, and Andy Dalton with 21.8. These last four complete on the INT number when it is not intercepted.
The most significant Must Runners are E.J. Manuel and Kevin Hogan with 18 chances. Hogan has 30! (Did I count that right?) chances to get 8 yards or more on a Must Run. (Of course, it will be a challenge to get a defense to call pass when he is in the game.) Seven more Must Runners have 21 chances to get 8 yards or more.
There are 6 QB’s with the Pistol rating; Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernik, Tyrod Taylor, Blake Bortles, and Marcus Mariota.
There are some VERY nice QB End Run cards this year. Hogan has 32 chances to get 8 yards or more in the wrong column. Kaepernick has 30, and Prescott and Rodgers have 27.
For leagues that allow QB’s to run with the same fatigue rules as RB’s, these guys will make it hard for the defense to decide whether to call Run or Pass.
Rather than computing the exact yardage totals, the chart shows the number of chances to gain 8 or more yards in the wrong columns. The ratings are based primarily on chances to get 8 or more yards while wrong with a higher weight given for inside running. Extra credit is also given for RB’s with high number of chances to gain a yard more in the Linebuck right column (since this helps get first downs in those 3rd and Short situations). Also factored in are chances for breakaway runs. A breakaway run is defined as a run of 35 yards or more.
The best ranked RB is LeSean Mccoy, followed by Kerwynn Williams (18 carries). Jay Ajayi, and Lamar Miller. Jordan Howard, Carlos Hyde, Mike Gilleslee, and Spencer Ware are also worthy of mention.
McCoy is good in all the running columns. He doesn’t excel in any of them, but is solid in all of them. He is tied for best in the set at getting a yard or more right. He also gets very good yards right, even on End Runs. And he is rarely thrown for a loss on his card. He also gets the 2nd most breakaway runs in the set. Combine this with VERY low fumble numbers and 234 carries and the ability to catch Flat and Short and you have a real weapon at Running Back. The middle of the card (6,7,and 8) are all good with 3 yards being the least on the card. When you discount breakaway runs, he drops to 4th best in the set.
Next best ranking goes to Williams, but he only has 18 carries, so in leagues that limit RB attempts, he will not provide much help, He has far and away the best Linebuck wrong card and is 2nd Off Tackle. Calling him right, however, kills his yardage. If you discount breakaway runs, this card is the best.
Next is Ajaji, but this is mostly due to breakaway runs. He has the most in the set with nine, Without them, he drops to 34th. He is good at getting a yard right (24 chances on a Linebuck), has fairly low fumbles and 260 carries
Now is Miller. Very good yardage Linebuck and End Run, Not as good Off Tackle. His is another card that doesn’t often lose yards when called right, especially Linebuck and End Run. He only has one breakaway chance on his card (oddly, Off Tackle) and when you discount breakaways, his card is the best in the set with RB’s with significant carries. And his are significant. He has 260 carries. He has fairly low fumbles and can catch Flat and Short.
The best RB’s, if you discount breakaway runs, are Williams, Miller, Duke Johnson, McCoy, and Bilal Powell.
The best breakaway runner is Ajayi with 9 chances. Then McCoy with 7. After that there are seven RB’s with 5.
The best RB’s to get a yard called Right on Linebuck is McCoy, Ezekiel Elliot, and Eddie Lacy with 26 chances. They are followed by nine other Running Backs with 24 chances. Then there are 6 RB;s with 22 chances..
The RB with the most chances to get 8 yards or more on a Linebuck is Williams with 26 chances. Following him is Jordan Howard with 18 and Miller with 17. For Off Tackle it’s Tyreek Hill with 23 chances, then Williams with 18, then Lacy, Derrick Henry, and Chris Thompson with 17. For End Run it’s Miller and Hill with 21, then Ryan Matthews, Duke Johnson, and Jordan Todman with 22..
Buffalo (McCoy and Gillislee) has the best RB set. This is determined by multiplying the card value time the number of carries and summing them up.
The team with the worst RB’s is Seattle, who was last by a lot for this dubious honor. Their only RB with more than 100 carries (Thomas Rawls) ranked 111th in the set.
The worst RB with more than 100 carries is the aforementioned Rawls with a 6.4 rating.
Some interesting items:
Kerwyn Williams has Right/Wrong Short Gain on a 9 all the way across the card.
Jordan Todman has Right/Wrong Short Gain on a 10 Off Tackle and End Run. And a Right/Wrong Short Gain on a 9 End Run
Ezekial Elliot and Jordan Howard have Long Gains on 3 End Run. Howard also has Short Gain R/ight/Wrong on a 2 all the way across card
Devonta Coleman and Lesean McCoy have Long Gains on an 11 End Run Wrong
Demarco Murray has a Long Gain on an 11 OT
Mark Ingram as an 75 OT on a 2
Isaiah Crowell as an 85 ER on a 12
Jay Ajayi has a Long Gain on an 11 End Run and ER Wrong
The 6,7,8 are all good numbers in all the Wrong columns for Ryan Matthews, Leveon Bell, and Carlos Hyde. No drive breakers there.
Guys who have nice cards with just a few carries:
There’s not much variation in chances on receiver cards. The number of chances to catch a pass is standardized. For Flat the possibilities are (Wrong) 32, 30, 26, 25, 22, 21, and 18. For Short Passes they are (Wrong) 30, 26, 22, 18, 16, and 12. For Long Passes, they are (Wrong) 21, 18, 15, 12, 10, 6, and 0.
Accordingly the receivers are not rated, but those receivers in the top of each category are listed.
I have seen some rate the receivers 6 through 0 using the following:
Flat Pass: 6=32, 5=30, 4=26, 3=25, 2=22, 1=21, 0=18
Short Pass: 6=30, 5=26, 4=22, 3=18, 2=16, 1=12, 0=0
Long Pass: 6=21, 5=18, 4=15, 3=12, 2=10, 1=6, 0=0
There were 6 receivers who received the maximum rating in each pass category. Odell Beckham, Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, A.J. Green, Jordy Nelson, and T.Y. Hilton.
And for the first time ever, receivers have completions in their double-teamed columns. There are 12 receivers who have completions in their Double-Teamed columns. In addition to the 6 who had maximum ratings in each category, they are: Larry Fitzgerald, Mike Evans, Delanie Walker, Travis Kelce, Greg Olsen, Jordan and Reed.
Following is the totals for each category of receiver:
Flat Short Long
32 – 20 30 – 20 21 – 16
30 – 70 26 – 48 18 – 25
There are 27 TE’s, 18 TE/BB’s 12 HB’s 1 FB and 1 FB/TE who have receptions on their Long Pass card. This is important for leagues that use the rule prohibiting throwing to a receiver unless he has a reception on his card in that column I did NOT count Tyrek Hill or Tavon Austin as a HB’s.
Rob Gronkowski have 18 wrong receptions in his Long column. 7 TE’s, 2 TE/BB’s, 1 FB and 1 HB have 15 wrong reception chances in their Long column.
Again this year , there are TE’s with a block rating of 0. And Blocking Backs with 0 ratings.
Interesting Items and Gnarly Receiving #’s
KC RB Spencer Ware has Long Gains in the Flat, Short, and Long columns.
OAK RB Jamize Olawale. 68 and 75 yard receptions on his Long Pass
Julio Jones is a 30 in the Short column and the shortest reception 15 yards. He also has a 50 yard reception right and wrong on the 12 in the Short column as well as a Long Gain on a 2.
Mike Wallace is a 26 in the Short column and has 66 Right and Wrong on a Short Pass 2 and a 95 Right and Wrong on a Long Pass 2
Kenny Stills is a 26 in the Short column and the shortest reception 15 yards. He also has a 52 yard Right and Wrong on a 2 and a Long Gain Right and Wrong on a 12 Short Pass.
Rob Gronkowski is a 26 in the Short column and the shortest reception 20 yards. He also has a Long Gain Right and Wrong on a 4 Short Pass. His Flat #’s are good for a TE but not great. They gave him his yardage Short and Long; the card is more indicative of a WR rather than a TE. Also this is a VERY nice card for a guy with 25 catches.
Desean Jackson is a 22 in the Short column and the shortest reception 17 yards He also has a 59 yard Right and Wrong on a 3.
Levine Toilolo, a TE, is a 18 in the Short column and the shortest reception 19 yards
Sammie Coates is a 18 short but the shortest catch is 19. He also has a Long Gain on a 10 Right and Wrong.
Brandin Cooks has a 98 Right and Wrong on a Long Pass 2.
Brandon D. Williams has a nice card for a guy with only 2 catches. He is a18 in the Short column and the shortest reception 17 yards.
Ladarius Green has a nice card for a guy with only 18 catches. He is a 22 in the Short column and the shortest reception 16 yards. Nice yards but no Long Gains.
Sammy Watkins has a nice card for a guy with only 28 catches
Tyler Eiffert has a nice card for a guy with only 29 catches
Vance McDonald has VERY nice yards especially flat.
As a side note, the yardages in the flat columns for the TE’s are reduced this year. Except for Vance McDonald, there aren’t any cards with more than 10 chances of 10 or more yards.
Julio Jones is (IMHO) the best overall receiving card in the set. He is maxed out in every column, has nice yards Flat, the shortest reception in the Short column is 15 yards and, he has catches on his card double-teamed.
Following is the list of TE’s and RB’s with Long pass receptions:
As always I welcome comments. My email address is MertAdkins@lycos.com.
Mr. Meredith Adkins